Introduction
The awards season is in full swing, and the biggest night of all — the Oscars — is looming large. For the 2025 ceremony, the competition is unusually open and unpredictable. From powerhouse nominees like Emilia Pérez, The Brutalist and Wicked to breakthrough performances and global storytelling, this year’s race reflects a shifting film landscape. The Guardian+2Variety+2
In this blog we’ll look at:
- The major categories and frontrunners
- Why certain films and artists are highlighted
- Key predictions (winners and surprises)
- What this year says about the future of the Oscars and global cinema
🔍 The State of the Race: What Makes 2025 Different
An unusually wide field
Unlike some years where one film dominates, this year we’re seeing several very strong contenders. For example, Emilia Pérez earned 13 nominations — the most of any non-English-language film in Oscars history. Them+1 The Brutalist and Wicked each have 10 nominations. The Guardian
Because of that depth, predicting is harder than usual — which makes the race exciting. The Guardian noted the Best Picture race is “the most open for years.” The Guardian
Global, diverse & streaming-era influence
Streaming platforms, international films, non-English-language stories are more present than ever. For example, Emilia Pérez is Spanish-language and led the pack. The Guardian This signals the academy is continuing to broaden its scope.
Also, big name actors are being snubbed (Nicole Kidman, Angelina Jolie, Denzel Washington) which shows the race is less predictable and more focused on story and impact. New York Post
🏆 Frontrunners & Predictions by Category
Below are some key categories and who we believe are the likely winners — plus surprise picks.
Best Picture
Favourites:
- Emilia Pérez (13 nominations)
- The Brutalist (10 nominations)
- Wicked (10 nominations)
Prediction: Emilia Pérez has the momentum and historic nomination count. But The Brutalist has strong critical acclaim and could upset.
My Pick: Emilia Pérez
Best Director
Favourites:
- Sean Baker (Anora)
- Jacques Audiard (Emilia Pérez)
- …others
Prediction: With a film like Emilia Pérez in the conversation, Audiard may pull director too. But Baker’s indie success story with Anora may appeal to voters.
My Pick: Sean Baker – Anora
Best Actor
Favourites:
- Adrien Brody – The Brutalist The Guardian
- Timothy Chalamet – A Complete Unknown Reddit
Prediction: Brody’s role in The Brutalist gives him the lead.
My Pick: Adrien Brody
Best Actress
Favourites:
- Mikey Madison – Anora The Guardian+1
- Karla Sofía Gascón – Emilia Pérez (historic nomination) Them
Prediction: While Gascón’s nomination is historic, industry momentum may favour Madison.
My Pick: Mikey Madison
Supporting Categories, Screenplays & Crafts
- Supporting Actor: Kieran Culkin – A Real Pain Reddit
- Supporting Actress: Zoe Saldana – Emilia Pérez The Guardian
- Original Screenplay: Anora
- Adapted Screenplay: Conclave
- International Feature: Emilia Pérez (or tied in)
🎯 Surprise Picks & Dark Horses
- Wicked – Given its high nomination count, could sweep in craft categories (costume, production design).
- Dune: Part Two – Big visual spectacle; strong in VFX, cinematography.
- Snub reaction: The snubs may provoke backlash, which sometimes works in favour of other films. New York Post
- International films may surprise: Non-English language films have more momentum this year than historically.
📌 What This Means for the Oscars & Film Industry
- The Oscars are increasingly embracing global cinema and streaming-era titles.
- Story and impact seem to matter more than star-power alone.
- Craft categories (sound, VFX, design) will be battlegrounds for the spectacle films.
- Indie films (like Anora) still have a shot at top prizes, indicating diversity of styles.
- For audiences: Expect surprises and shifts — the “safe bet” movie may not win it all.
✅ Final Thoughts & What to Watch
As we approach the ceremony (March 2, 2025) — hosted by Conan O’Brien — keep an eye on:
- Momentum after recent precursor awards (Directors’ Guild, BAFTA)
- Social & historical narratives (first trans nominee Karla Sofía Gascón, global film representation) Them+1
- Voting-block behaviour: craft voters vs major branch voters.
- Campaign strength: which studio and filmmaker push hardest.
My overall prediction winners:
- Best Picture: Emilia Pérez
- Best Director: Sean Baker – Anora
- Best Actor: Adrien Brody
- Best Actress: Mikey Madison
Will things shake out exactly that way? Probably not — and that’s part of what makes the 2025 Oscars so compelling.
Let me know if you’d like a detailed breakdown of each nominee in each major category (with odds, comparisons, and campaign strength).
